I called it.
The GOP has swept to power in the senate. With Alaska's Dan Sullivan win in a close race announced earlier today (Wednesday the 12th), the Republicans have a total of fifty-three seats to the Democrats' forty-four and the two seats held by Independents. Only one seat remains - a Louisiana spot, set to be determined in a runoff election come December, in which the Republican candidate holds the edge. Regardless, the Republicans are firmly in control in both houses of Congress, as well as in many states. Many typically blue states, namely Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland, elected Republican governors. This puts both parties in an unusually precarious position for the future, and I'll explain why.
1) 2016
The Democrats and the Republicans have the opposite problems when it comes to the next two presidential elections. The Democrats have one candidate (who else but Hillary?) who's in position to receive the nomination, whereas the Republicans have many individuals. This may seem like a good thing for the Democrats. And for the next ten years, it will be. Emily and Jess's film group, in one of their mid-titles, described Hillary as the forty-fifth president of the United States. And that's probably true. There's really no competition for Hillary on either side of the aisle. The GOP is fragmented between the moderate conservatives, like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, and the hardline extremists (Rick Perry, anyone?). Say what you will about Romney - he gave the GOP a rallying point, because he united the two warring factions within the party. For that reason, lots of Republicans want him to run again. But he won't, for two reasons: first, he's already said he would never put himself through that process again. And secondly, even if he does, Hillary would cream him. There aren't any Democrats who pose a significant threat to Clinton. Let's be honest here, nobody really wants President Biden. And even though there's been some speculation about Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, she may not even run. And even if she does, Hillary will crush her. Our own Andrew Cuomo wouldn't hold against her. Nor would California governor Jerry Brown. Things are looking pretty good for the Democrats in the next ten years. The thing is, ten years is a blink of an eye in terms of world history.
2) 2024 and Beyond
The thing is, the Republican position right now is what the Democratic position may very well be come 2024. There are a lot of elections between then and now, but as of now, there is no real successor to Hillary. The fact that she has no competition will serve the Democrats well in the next two presidential elections, but once her two terms are up, who will replace her? Many of the figures who would have been in that position by 2024 lost their seats in this election. Governors, senators, congressmen and women...the left took a big hit. There are plenty of Republicans, on the other hand, like Mike Pence and Bobby Jindal (governors of Indiana and Louisiana, respectively), who are relatively secure in their seats, and very well may be come 2024. Either one of these men, or any of the other secure members of the Republican party, could become a serious contender for the unlucky Democrat nominated to succeed Hillary. And odds are, the outcome would favor the Republican. Take Bobby Jindal, for instance. He's a first-generation Indian-American, so he would hold plenty of appeal for immigrants. At the same time, his right-wing views on economics, education and taxation make him a favorite among Republicans around the nation. Some consider him a potential nominee in 2016. If the Republicans are smart, and they're smarter than most of us would like to think, they'll save Jindal for 2024 (or 2020, if Hillary's first term doesn't go so smoothly). The only realistic scenario in which the Democrats will hold the White House in 2024 will be if Hillary's presidency is phenomenal, and they coast to success on the wave of that popularity. If that doesn't happen, we can expect the White House to turn from blue to red come January 2025.
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