In honor of the seventy-third anniversary of the attacks on Pearl Harbor, I'm going to discuss how the world would be different today in the event that history had gone a bit differently. This may become a recurring segment on my blog, depending how this post goes. If it's productive and makes me think, I'll keep it. If it's pointless and has no real worth, I'll drop it. So let's see how this goes! Here's the question of the day: How would the world be different if the Axis won World War Two?
That's a very broad statement - there are a lot of ways the Axis could have won the war. The odds weren't so much in our favor in the early years in the war. A few rational decisions on one highly irrational dictator's part would have altered the face of human history. For instance, let's say Hitler went through with his original plan to take Great Britain before the assault on the Soviet Union. We'd like to think this wouldn't have happened, but it very nearly did. Germany had the manpower and the industrial capability to finish the job - Hitler just didn't have the patience. If he did, the Luftwaffe would have worn down the RAF through sheer force of numbers before turning its attention to the Royal Navy. Once again, through sheer force of numbers, the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine (German Navy) would wear down on the British forces in the Channel. Then the Panzers would cross over, and the rest would have been history.
I suppose this is the statement I'm focusing on: what if the Nazis conquered Britain in the early years of the war? This is what we do know - Churchill, the Royal Family, the Parliament, and all the civilians who could would flee to another part of the Empire. Canada seems the most likely choice for the new seat of government - it's the farthest-removed from the ambitious, empire-building Japanese nation, and quite close to the United States. The America factor also comes into play - we were technically neutral up until Pearl Harbor, but we heavily favored the British. Churchill's grand plan for victory early in the war was to, and I quote, "...drag the United States in" to the conflict. Relocating to Canada would have put the British government in very close proximity to the United States. Within fifty miles, in fact, assuming the Canadian capital of Ottawa was chosen as the new center of British government. I don't think the American people would have taken kindly to a foreign army tromping around fifty miles from their soil with an intent to conquer.
How would the war progress from there? That would depend on quite a few things. In this situation, do the Japanese still attack Pearl Harbor? Do the Americans declare war on Germany before Pearl Harbor? And, perhaps most importantly, how do the Germans fare against the Russians? This last one warrants a post of its own, so perhaps I'll discuss it in the not-too-distant future. Because the Russian victory over the Germans was hardly guaranteed. Once again, if Hitler had made a few rational decisions, it wasn't only feasible - it was likely. But more on that later. If the Germans managed to beat the Russians, the British would be in trouble. Especially if the Japanese had declared war upon the United States, and the two powers had to split their navies and militaries to fight a two-front war. This is exactly what happened to Germany in World War Two, and it eventually destroyed them.
Here's the burning question that comes out of all of this: would the Axis have conquered North America? The answer is, in all likelihood, no. The American people were armed to the teeth - remember, this is long before the days of assault rifles. The average midwestern farmer was just as well-armed as the average German soldier. The full might of the American Army and whatever remained of the British Army and Canadian Army would be waiting for the aggressors. And the majority of those troops would be fighting on their home turf. And, assuming the Americans still won the Battle of Midway (or Japan stayed out of the conflict altogether), neither army would have to worry about the Pacific. The Old World would fall to the Axis or the Soviet Union, depending on who won, but Oceania and the Western Hemisphere would remain safe. Because an invasion of the British Isles would have cost a great deal of German lives. Churchill would have undoubtedly seen the British people make good on his words if the Nazis landed. An invasion of the US and Canada - nearly as large as, far more densely populated than, and far-better armed than the Soviet Union, to say nothing of their geographic isolation from the European continent - would be almost impossible. We could churn out tanks faster than the Germans could destroy them, and every man from eight to eighty would be in the field with a rifle. The Nazis couldn't feasibly win.
Unless, of course, they developed the atomic bomb...but that's another matter altogether.
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