Monday, May 25, 2015

Update on the Campaigns...

Election season comes early in Washington. Heck, it's already beginning. Candidates are announcing their campaigns left and right (pun intended), and the flurry of activity is beginning.

Let's start with the Democrats, since the pool there is significantly smaller than it is on the right. Essentially, the battle for the nomination is a struggle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bernie Sanders. A few other candidates are also in the mix, but none of them are truly likely to garner much support. Let's take a look at the two declared candidates (something I won't be able to do with the Republicans, given the amount of time that would take - that warrants a separate post of its own). Everybody knows Hillary - former First Lady, former New York State Senator, former Secretary of State under President Obama. Bernie Sanders is a self-proclaimed "Democratic Socialist," an Independent senator from Vermont who stands alongside Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren as one of Capitol Hill's most outspoken progressives. In a reflection of national trends, Hillary Clinton - who stands easily to the left of President Obama - is the more moderate of the two candidates. In essence, Clinton and Sanders share many of the same views on many of the same topics, with Clinton standing a bit more towards the center than Sanders. Clinton is notably more moderate when it comes to issues such as international trade, domestic surveillance, foreign policy, and others. Both have similar stances on social issues like gay marriage and abortion. Clinton, as it currently stands, is the heavy favorite for the Democratic Nomination - and, indeed, the election in general. Widely adored and admired across the left for her track record in the senate, she draws some criticism from Democrats - namely Sanders' supporters - for changing her views on certain issues, including gay marriage, foreign involvement, and financial reform. And, of course, she draws an exorbitant amount of flak from the right. If you're naïve enough to think the Republicans have forgotten about Benghazi...they haven't, nor will they ever. The right's criticism of Clinton centers around a few key points: they argue that she believes she's above the system and that she would be an ineffective leader with respect to the wider world, using her track record as Secretary of State as their evidence.

Now we get to the Republicans, where things are much less orderly. Whereas the two Democratic frontrunners are relatively similar in their respective ideologies, the Republicans are all over the map. Virtually every single faction within the Republicans has a candidate at this point, and some of the heavy hitters haven't even declared their campaign. The Tea Party and the grassroots conservatives have Texas Senator Ted Cruz, the libertarians have Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the social conservatives have Dr. Ben Carson and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, the fiscal conservatives have former executive Carly Fiorina, and the moderate Republicans have Marco Rubio. This is without the likes of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, former Texas governor Rick Perry, South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal...you get the picture. It seems like the only major Republican who isn't running is Mitt Romney, who managed to unite (more or less) the warring factions so well-represented here in 2012. But the biggest name of all is one who'll probably announce his campaign any day of all. He's the biggest name in the pool, of course, because his last name is the last name of two previous Republican presidents. In case I'm not being painfully obvious enough, it's Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush stands in what is perhaps the best position of the Republican nominees, despite calls from critics claiming that he's - wait for it - too liberal to win the nomination. Jeb is a staunch supporter of immigration reform, it's true, and most would agree that he's slightly more moderate than his elder brother on most issues. But don't for half a second take him for a centrist - Jeb Bush stands for most of the classical conservative values. Small government, gun rights, Christian nuclear family, the whole shebang. He did support environmental conservation while governor, but not in any earth-shattering way. Ultimately, Jeb's biggest obstacle will be his brother's legacy, which is hardly looked favorably upon in today's America. Already, he's been taking some small steps to set him apart from George. And you can expect all the former presidents - be they Clintons or Bushes - to remain fairly quiet on the campaign trail. We all know the reasons why.

A Clinton-Bush matchup would be an interesting one. Not only because it would involve America's two biggest political dynasties - because it would pit friends against each other. Hillary's oft-maligned husband counts Jeb's father as one of his best friends - Bill and George Sr. have worked closely together on a number of humanitarian projects in their post-presidency, including aid efforts in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The former Democratic president is also good friends with his successor, George W. Bush. It's one of those stories that gives me a bit of hope for our overly-partisan nation. Whenever I see Bill Clinton and George Bush joking with each other on social media, or hear about one calling the other to congratulate him on the birth of a grandchild, I can't help but smile. It's one of those cases where I allow myself the liberty of hope. 

1 comment:

  1. Great quote: "It's one of those cases where I allow myself the liberty of hope."

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