Monday, September 8, 2014

The World this Week

This week, the radical terrorist group ISIS threatened another world leader.  This time, though, they probably should have picked a different world leader. They didn't threaten President Obama, you see. Nor did they threaten the United Kingdom's David Cameron, or Germany's Angela Merkel, or Francois Hollande of France. No, the masterminds of ISIS decided to threaten the man who is the main architect of what I like to call the Second Cold War, and is regarded by many as one of the world's most dangerous leaders. Don't believe me? Check it out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2741979/This-message-addressed-oh-Putin-ISIS-threaten-Russia-ties-Syrias-Assad-promise-liberate-Chechnya-Caucasus.html

Now, I don't know Vladimir Putin personally. However, he doesn't strike me as the type of man who takes threats from upstarts. Obama's a different story, mainly because a) he's more of a work-things-out type of guy and b) the commander in chief of one of the world's strongest militaries. I'm not sure if Putin will view ISIS in the same light as Obama, though. At this point, there are three possible scenarios, each of which would impact Russia - and the world as a whole - in a radically different way.

1. Putin scoffs at the threats
This is, in all honesty, the most likely option. It would be parallel to how Vlad has reacted to the west's demands over Crimea and Georgia. I hardly think Putin would see ISIS as a major threat to the Russian Federation, with its vast swathes of territory, inexhaustible resources, and powerful military. In this circumstance, Putin would likely respond by shoring up security in the Caucasus and in Chechnya, and that would be the limit of his response.

2. Putin goes in and crushes ISIS
This situation, though unlikely, is not impossible. There are a number of reasons why Putin would never do such a thing. Then again, there are plenty of reasons why he would. Or rather, one big reason: Russia's image, specifically when compared to America's image. If Putin sweeps into the Middle East and crushes the Islamic State with the full force of Russia's military might, he will look strong at Obama's expense, especially after the latter's "We don't have a strategy" gaffe. That could swing our Middle Eastern allies away from us and towards Russia.

3. Putin makes a plan alongside NATO
This event is the least likely to occur, for obvious reasons. Due to that, this circumstance is mostly wishful thinking. But as it sometimes happens that your enemy's enemy is your friend, it isn't impossible. Then again, Putin could have Stalin's views on the matter: your enemy's enemy is still your enemy. A pact between the west and east could potentially ease the tensions distancing the two camps and end Cold War Two in its infancy. A Russo-American alliance has existed before, you know. It was a very strained relationship, of course, but a relationship nonetheless. Putin probably wouldn't come to the table for this sort of thing, but stranger things have happened before.

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