The World This Week

This week - and by this week, I mean tomorrow - Scotland is holding independence referendums. What this means is that by tomorrow evening we should know whether Scotland will become its own nation (in more than name) and secede from the United Kingdom. As of right now, the two camps - the nationalists and the unionists - are just about even in the polls. The big reason for the nationalists' desire for independence is neither cultural nor economic - it's political. The Scots feel that they're being underrepresented in the English Parliament. Prime Minister Cameron and the Queen have offered a compromise which would give the Scots more power, but it may have been too little, too late. We'll find out tomorrow, I suppose. And I'm sure many of you who've read my blog before can guess which camp I support. But the western world will be rocked if Scotland secedes.

1) What will happen to the British government?
In an ironic twist of fate, British conservatives - the main voice of unionism south of the border - stand to gain the most from an independent Scotland. Britain's Labor Party - roughly the equivalent of our Democratic Party - has a great deal of support in Scotland. Britain's Conservative Party - the counterpart of the Republicans - currently holds the majority of the British parliament. The Labor Party would take a hit in its number of seats if Scotland were to secede. The Conservatives would not. At the very least, Scottish independence would not be a factor in helping the Labor Party or hurting the Conservatives.

2) What will happen to Europe?
If Scotland becomes independent, it will have to answer two very important questions: will it join the European Union? And what about NATO? Well, Scotland's as-yet-unofficial leader, Alex Salmond, intends to try and join the European Union, but there's no guarantee the Scots will be welcomed, or even accepted, into the organization. The Spanish Prime Minister in particular, no doubt fearing that an independent Scotland would inspire Catalonian nationalists, is virulently opposed to admitting the Scots into the union (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11101758/Spanish-Prime-Minister-gives-EU-warning-to-Scots.html  ). As for the second point, an independent Scotland would have to join NATO, which Salmond seemingly intends to do. Such action could be vital for Scotland, which brings us to my final point:

3) How will the British react?
In theory, if the Scots vote for independence, the British will pack up and leave. Theory and practice, history has taught us, are seldom the same thing. There's no guarantee that Cameron's government will simply let Scotland go. Scotland has huge oil reserves, enormous fish stocks, and no standing military. English troops may very well remain within Scotland, or attempt to hold onto the country for their motherland. If Scotland joins NATO, this would solve that problem for them - England can hardly invade a nation they're bound to defend as a brother. But if the Scots remain outside of the organization, which seems likely in the near future (Salmond insists on removing all nuclear weapons from Scotland if the nation becomes independent, which would be a bit of a headache for the leaders of NATO) - well, Britain is our ally. We would stand with Britain. Obama might not, but I'm not sure how much weight his voice holds in Brussels.

Oh, I'm in a bit of a predicament. The Irish nationalist in me wants Scotland to become independent, but the American nationalist in me wants Scotland to stay with the UK and in so doing remain our ally. We'll just have to see what tomorrow brings.